Annabel DeChant

While studying abroad in Venice, another Miami student and I tried to take a waterbus off the island to go see the Dolomites mountains, only to find out that we needed to take an entirely different line – the waterbus had reduced hours due to the EU parliamentary elections. Despite this hiccup, I found it exciting following the elections as they happened, while actually being in the European Union. 

For some context, the European Parliament deals with issues of governance across Europe and the above-national level. It’s “the world’s only directly elected transnational assembly.” Members of the European Parliament, along with representatives from EU countries’ own governments, work on laws and policies regarding a wide variety of issues that impact the EU. They’re elected every five years by citizens of the EU.

Provisional voter turnout results showed Belgium (where voting is compulsory) having the highest turnout, with 89.82%, and Croatia having the lowest, with 21.35%. Across the European Union, there was an overall turnout of 51.08%. 

This is fairly in line with past turnout rates for the EU Parliament. In 2019, turnout was 50.66%. The highest turnout was in 1979, at 61.99%, and the lowest was in 2014, at 42.61%. Historically, the EU has had challenges getting strong turnout numbers for the Parliament, which has presented “a real legitimacy issue” given the scope of the EU, in both membership and policy areas. As I’ve argued in the context of US elections, voter turnout is essential and can have real impacts in various political systems. 

Provisional results show the following seat allocations: 39 seats for The Left, 136 for the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament, 54 seats for the Greens / European Free Alliance, 74 seats for Renew Europe, 189 seats for the European People’s Party, 83 seats for the European Conservatives and Reformists, 58 seats for Identity and Democracy, 45 seats for non-attached Members, and 42 seats for Others. This makes up the total of 720 seats in the European Parliament. Seat allocations give us some insight into the relative levels of power that the varying parties will have, but tangible impacts will still come down to who works with whom. In a system with multiple parties, collaboration between parties can have major impacts on policy results.

The elections yielded “big gains” for far-right parties. Far-right parties “made serious inroads in France and Germany.” Following these elections, somewhere around 130 seats are expected to be held by “groups that hold a nationalist, anti-immigrant agenda.” Still, the center held ground somewhat; the European People’s Party, which is the mainstream conservative group, was projected to gain seats and stay in the lead, but the other two centrist parties lost seats. This is significant because it makes for an overall weakening of the EU’s centrist bloc. 

The increased power of far-right parties could have significant implications for policies in the EU, including “still tighter borders and a paring back of the E.U.’s climate ambitions.” This rightward shift is seen throughout the EU countries as well as in the EU’s own government. Currently, seven out of 27 EU countries have right-wing parties in government, whether independently or in coalitions. 

The elections have had serious impacts for France and Germany, and for their leaders especially. France’s President Emmanuel Macron decided to dismiss the National Assembly and have legislative elections to make up a new one. In three years, Macron’s time in office will be over in accordance with term limits, and Le Pen may now be at an advantage for confronting the mainstream in the presidential elections when that time comes. The first round of voting yielded a strong start for the National Rally. Ahead of the second round of voting, Aurelien Breeden said, “France is unpredictable territory.” Following the second round, the New Popular Front ended up in the lead, followed by the Ensemble alliance and then the National Rally and its allies, but no party had a majority. 

AfD, Germany’s far-right party, pulled into second place there, ahead of the Social Democrats but still behind the Christian Democratic Union. Scholz pointed to crises in the world leading to diminished trust in mainstream politics, and urged moderate politicians to rebuild it.

The troubles that governments in France and Germany are facing in light of this year’s EU Parliament elections could mean trouble for the EU: “Traditionally, little can happen in the bloc without their leadership.”

Current European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said that the European conservatives, of whom she is a member, “are an anchor of stability.” On June 27, a deal was made for Ursula von der Leyen to continue in her position, while Antonio Costa of Portugal will take the position of European Council president and Kaja Kallas is set to lead foreign policy. Von der Leyen and Kallas still need the European Parliament’s majority support to secure their positions. 

Back in Italy, the Brothers of Italy party took first place, with 28.76% of the vote, followed by the Democratic Party, with 24.11%. Broken down by the European Parliament political groups, out of 76 seats, 2 went to the Left, 21 to S&D, 4 to Greens/EFA, 9 to EPP, 24 to ECR, 8 to ID, and 8 non-attached. Such a result was a win for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her far-right Brothers of Italy party.

Political posters in a square in Venice

Overall, the EU Parliament elections showed some significant changes, with some expressing concern over the tumultuous position in which the EU now seems to find itself. With these elections determining the makeup of the EU Parliament for the next five years, they’re sure to have significant and lasting impacts in the European Union and beyond.