Maximilian Fuhrig

Over the last 30 years Estonia has experienced change, from Soviet occupation to an era of democracy and digital transformation. It is among the most digitally developed countries in the world and helped to pave the way for others. Estonia shows us what our own digital futures might look like if we’re willing to take the leap. In January I had the opportunity to study abroad in Estonia and used much of my time there to immerse myself in Estonian culture and society, especially the digital aspects of it. I met with the head organizer of Estonia’s elections -which are conducted digitally themselves- and received a brief from e-Estonia, an organisation that advocates for Estonia’s global role in e-governance.

The Republic of Estonia became independent from the Soviet Union in August 1991 following the Singing Revolution, which saw all three Baltic States become free for the first time since World War II. Once the initial euphoria of liberation wore off, the transition to free markets and democracy thrust Estonia into a deep economic crisis. Estonia sought to become an economic innovator to solve its post-communist crisis and assert itself as a free nation no longer under Russian domination. Although technologically underdeveloped compared to the West, the country was home to the Institute of Cybernetics of the Academy of Sciences of Estonia, which had been a hub for Soviet computer research. Estonia’s backwards development meant it was in a unique position to adopt cutting-edge technological systems without the cumbersome need to upgrade older systems first. When Estonia was offered Finland’s old analogue phone system in 1992, the government refused, opting instead to adopt a digital system, skipping landlines altogether. In 1994 the government committed 1% of GDP permanently to IT development, and adopted a flat tax rate for all citizens -a world first-, further distinguishing the nation as a leader in global innovation.

In 1997, Estonia’s Institute of Cybernetics was spun into the company Cybernetica. Today Cybernetica is behind much of the infrastructure of Estonia’s digital society. In 2000 Cybernetica released X-Road, a digital exchange layer that allows the Estonian government’s vast network of data to communicate securely and transparently with itself and private partners. Initially X-Road was primarily used to manage data in the national population register, but rapidly expanded. An early big initiative was the integration of X-Road into the national taxation system. Because it is able to pull data easily from so many sources, it has enabled citizens and businesses to file taxes accurately within minutes without need for any paper documentation. Today X-Road is used to facilitate all state functions: to record births and deaths, complete background checks in minutes, to storing standardized test scores and everything in between. The final step towards complete digitization was completed in December 2024 when it became possible to divorce online.

Another major innovation was the digital ID card, introduced in 2002. The digital ID card initially offered few services but today is used to log into government websites, sign contracts, access healthcare, and access all government services. It can even be used in non-state contexts, for example, as your membership card at a business. The ID cards are password protected so even if an ID was stolen or cloned it could not be used without knowing the password.

One of the key innovations enabled by the digital ID card is electronic voting, called ‘i-voting’. The head of the State Electoral Office, Arne Koitmäe, whom I had the opportunity to interview on my trip, told me: “many people used ID cards for the first time in 2005 for the elections…it was one of the early applications for the ID card”. In 2005, when Estonia offered i-voting in municipal elections, it was another impressive worldfirst for the country. The first national election to feature i-voting was held in 2007 and in the 2023 EU elections over 50% of votes were cast digitally for the first time. To vote digitally, voters first sign into the voting application from a computer using their ID card. Next they select their preference and finally submit and sign the vote digitally. They’re able to verify that the vote was received and was counted correctly using a QR code in the application and their phone. 

Security of the system is maintained by the Republic of Estonia Information System Authority (RIA). According to Koitmäe, it is “protected by firewall, DDoS protection, the works” and has “never been breached”, despite being under constant attack from Russia. RIA also manages the physical security and custody of the digital votes. After the election period is over “the votes are stored offline on Blu-ray discs, it’s an ancient technology [so they can’t be tampered with]” Koitmäe said, next the votes are delivered to the electoral office and, the electoral commission ‘unseals’ the votes using a cryptologic decryption key. The votes are mathematically audited and verified before finally being added to the total of all votes.

The success of digital society in Estonia is undeniable, but it has not been without criticism. In 2017 a vulnerability was discovered in Estonian ID cards which would have allowed a hacker to ‘calculate’ the password. The vulnerability was never successfully exploited and Estonia was able to quickly roll out an update that patched the vulnerability without needing to replace several hundred thousand affected cards. In regards to the threat of government surveillance, the 2024 Freedom House report on Estonia notes: “Estonia is known for its high degree of government transparency and well-developed e-governance services.” And scores the nation 4/4 for openness and transparency. Additionally, Estonian citizens own all of their data, -unlike Americans-, and citizens are able to track how that data is used on X-Road. An Estonian farmer I met complained that many of the digital systems offered by the government are buggy and difficult to navigate and he said they looked like they were “coded by students”. However, he also told me how the government’s digital services have helped him to increase his farms profitability, even advising him what to plant in order to maximize which subsidies he qualifies for.

I-voting has also been the subject of criticism. Koitmäe told me how “since 2011 or so, there’s been always one party who has been against it… it’s usually used to explain why they lost the elections.” The OSCE/ODIHR, a European election observer, has raised concerns about the system, but has never found any evidence of fraud. Based on a number of concerns related to election security, the 2007 report on Estonia stated: “The authorities should carefully reconsider whether the internet should be widely available as a voting method, or alternatively whether it should be used only on a limited basis or at all.” Now, over a decade later the 2023 report no longer found any major security issues and only raised minor concerns related to voter trust and transparency, given the partisan concerns that Koitmäe described.

Could the United States also become a digital society? The sheer size of the United States and our unique system of federalism will make it unusually challenging. There are however simple but significant steps we could take to make our society more digital. First, we could adopt a system that would integrate all the digital services offered by the federal government, similar to X-Road. The benefits would be enormous. A 2018 report from the World Bank notes “conservatively assuming that each of the 113 million X-Road transactions in 2014 saved approximately 15 minutes, this results in a savings of some 3,225 years of time.” If we extrapolate this figure to the United States by simply adjusting for population, we get a time savings of about 790,000 years. Though, that does assume the system would integrate both state and local services, which would be much more challenging than just integrating federal services; most states and many local governments themselves dwarf Estonia in terms of population. The number of localities in the United States is also orders of magnitude larger: some 90,000 to a mere 79.

Another major challenge is the question of public trust. Without trust people will be resistant to using the system, decreasing cost-savings and efficiency. Giving citizens private ownership over their data is a necessary first step to creating trust in a digital society. Data ownership is extremely robust in Estonia and Estonians have complete control over how their data is used. The United States has made some progress in this area, but mostly within the context of data usage by private entities and not the government itself.

A third challenge faced is access. In order for the system to be effective and fair all citizens would need to have equal access. This would mean first and foremost creating the physical infrastructure necessary for every American to have internet access. Second, we would need national education initiatives to train every American on how to use these systems safely and effectively. Finally a national digital ID card would not be necessary but would substantially increase efficiency and security, this would need to be available for every citizen at low or no cost and would be a significant expense for the government.

The United States faces serious barriers to establishing a digital society, particularly because of the sheer size of its population and our federalist system. We need our leaders to focus on building public trust –particularly in terms of data ownership– and on reconciling the high degree of bureaucratic complexity between federal, state and local levels. These will be hard challenges to overcome, but are not impossible. Estonia provides us a glimpse of the future, getting there will by no means be easy.